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中國能源報告(2014):能源貧困研究 讀者對象:能源與環(huán)境領域的政府公務人員、企業(yè)管理人員、高等院校師生、科研人員及相關的工作者
能源貧困是全世界能源體系面臨的三大挑戰(zhàn)之一,得到了國際社會和學術界的廣泛關注。中國是世界上最大的發(fā)展中國家,面臨著更嚴峻更復雜的能源貧困問題!吨袊茉磮蟾妫2014):能源貧困問題研究》是《中國能源報告》系列研究報告的第5卷,從能源經(jīng)濟的視角入手,總結并提煉了國際能源貧困評估方法,構建了中國能源貧困度量和綜合評價指標,從時間和空間維度評估中國能源貧困,并針對固體燃料利用對居城鄉(xiāng)民健康影響、能源貧困與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平、清潔能源發(fā)展與能源貧困、氣候變化與能源可獲得性、消除能源貧困的政策與行動等重要問題開展了系統(tǒng)研究。
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目錄
前言 縮寫和縮略語 第1章 世界能源發(fā)展與能源貧困 1 1.1 世界能源發(fā)展概況 2 1.1.1 能源消費持續(xù)增長,各國增速差異較大 2 1.1.2 化石能源占主要地位,清潔能源發(fā)展迅速 3 1.1.3 化石能源儲量豐富,區(qū)域分布不均 4 1.1.4 能源貿(mào)易以石油為主,天然氣貿(mào)易增長迅速 6 1.1.5 能源貧困廣泛存在,發(fā)展中國家尤為突出 7 1.2 中國能源發(fā)展的基本特征 8 1.2.1 能源供需增長較快,對外依存度持續(xù)上升 8 1.2.2 能源工業(yè)體系相對完整,產(chǎn)供需流圖與發(fā)達國家顯著不同 10 1.2.3 煤炭供需逆向分布,大規(guī)模長距離調(diào)運突出 11 1.2.4 國內(nèi)石油產(chǎn)量缺口較大,交通用油增長較快 12 1.2.5 天然氣供需增長快,用氣人口大幅增長 13 1.2.6 電源結構綠色化轉型加快,電力跨區(qū)調(diào)度量較大 14 1.2.7 能源資源短缺問題尚未解決,現(xiàn)代能源服務體系初步建立 15 1.3 世界與中國能源發(fā)展的新變化和新格局 17 1.3.1 世界經(jīng)濟企穩(wěn)向好,國際能源市場不確定性因素減少 17 1.3.2 世界龍源格局正發(fā)生深刻調(diào)整,美國“能源獨立”邁出實質性步伐 18 1.3.3 中國節(jié)能減碳難度增大,落實總量和強度雙控制目標任務艱巨 19 1.3.4 中國大氣污染嚴重,防治工作受到前所未有的高度重視 19 1.4 能源貧困與世界能源貧困的主要特征 20 1.4.1 發(fā)展中國家電力普遍服務水平較低,加大全球減貧難度 20 1.4.2 發(fā)展中國家低效消費傳統(tǒng)生物質能,引發(fā)環(huán)境及健康問題突出 22 1.4.3 發(fā)達國家能源貧困群體生活用能支出占比較高,影響社會整體公平 24 1.5 國際組織應對能源貧困的方案和行動 25 1.5.1 聯(lián)合國:倡議“人人享有可持續(xù)能源 25 1.5.2 世界衛(wèi)生組織:關注固體燃料利用與室內(nèi)空氣污染和健康 27 1.5.3 國際能源署:持續(xù)評估發(fā)展中國家能源貧困狀況 28 1.5.4 世界銀行:響應“人人享有可持續(xù)能源”倡議 29 第2章 中國能源貧困的度量與總體特征 31 2.1 能源貧困概述 32 2.1.1 能源貧困概念 32 2.1.2 本報告涉及的中國能源貧困界定 33 2.2 能源貧困度量方法及其對中國的適用性 34 2.2.1 基于能源可獲得性的能源貧困度量方法 35 2.2.2 基于能源服務質量的能源貧困度量方法 37 2.2.3 基于滿足人類能源需求的能源貧困度量方法 38 2.2.4 能源貧困度量方法的中國適用性分析 41 2.3 中國能源貧困的主要特征 43 2.3.1 電力已基本實現(xiàn)全覆蓋,商品能源消費量不斷增加 43 2.3.2 城鄉(xiāng)生活用能差異顯著,農(nóng)村能源貧困問題更加突出 45 2.3.3 農(nóng)村生活用能地域差異明顯,生活用能以固體燃料為主 48 2.3.4 農(nóng)村用能設施落后低效,清潔炊具普及率低 49 2.3.5 生活用能價格上漲,生活用能支出占比城鄉(xiāng)分化 50 2.4 本章小結 54 第3章 中國能源貧困的綜合評估與區(qū)域比較 56 3.1 能源貧困綜合評估的指標和方法 57 3.1.1 能源貧困綜合評估指標體系的設計原則 57 3.1.2 能源貧困綜合評估指標體系的功能定位 58 3.1.3 中國能源貧困綜合評估指標體系 59 3.1.4 能源貧困綜合評估計算方法 66 3.2 中國能源貧困的綜合評估 69 3.2.1 能源貧困整體狀況呈下降趨勢 70 3.2.2 能源服務可獲得性有所改善 71 3.2.3 能源消費清潔性沒有顯著變化 72 3.2.4 能源管理完備性在提升中有所反復 73 3.2.5 生活用能可支付性及高效性不斷改善 73 3.3 中國能源貧困的區(qū)域比較 75 3.3.1 黃河中游地區(qū)和長江中游地區(qū)綜合能源貧困狀況尤為突出 75 3.3.2 長江中游地區(qū)能源服務可獲得性相對較低 76 3.3.3 黃河中游地區(qū)能源消費清潔性相對較低 76 3.3.4 東部沿海地區(qū)能源管理完備性相對較差 77 3.3.5 東北地區(qū)生活用能可支付性和高效性相對較差 78 3.4 中國區(qū)域能源貧困現(xiàn)狀特征和變化趨勢 79 3.5 消除中國區(qū)域能源貧困的政策建議 82 3.5.1 加大對農(nóng)村地區(qū)的能源基礎建設投入,加強農(nóng)村能源管理和推廣機構的建設 86 3.5.2 提升非固體商品能源消費比重,推廣現(xiàn)代清潔的生物質能利用方式 86 3.5.3 降低居民家庭商業(yè)用能相對成本,鼓勵采用現(xiàn)代化和清潔高效的生活用能設備 87 3.6 本章小結 87 第4章 能源貧困對城鎮(zhèn)居民健康的影響 89 4.1 能源貧困與城鎮(zhèn)居民健康研究進展 90 4.1.1 發(fā)展中國家:能源供給不足,關注室內(nèi)空氣污染對居民健康影響 90 4.1.2 發(fā)達國家:能源支出較高,聚焦相關政策成效對居民健康影響 91 4.2 中國城鎮(zhèn)居民能源消費與能源貧困 93 4.2.1 城鎮(zhèn)商品能源消費水平雖遠高于農(nóng)村地區(qū),但相比發(fā)達國家仍處于較低水平 93 4.2.2 能源消費結構逐漸優(yōu)化,清潔能源比重逐步提高 95 4.2.3 城鎮(zhèn)能源基礎設施建設狀況不斷改善,城市燃氣普及率不斷提高 95 4.3 能源貧困與城鎮(zhèn)居民健康 96 4.3.1 室內(nèi)熱舒適程度低是危害我國居民健康的重要因素 96 4.3.2 燃料選擇和能源使用導致的室內(nèi)空氣污染對居民健康造成直接危害 97 4.3.3 建筑材料結構和設施是影響居民健康的重要因素 98 4.3.4 農(nóng)村燃料燃燒的污染物區(qū)域擴散危害城鎮(zhèn)居民健康 99 4.4 消除能源貧困對城鎮(zhèn)居民健康影響的政策建議 100 4.5 本章小結 101 第5章 農(nóng)村固體燃料利用及其對居民健康的影響 103 5.1 能源貧困與農(nóng)村居民健康研究進展 104 5.1.1 國際重要學術期刊和權威學者對固體燃料利用問題高度關注 104 5.1.2 針對固體燃料利用造成的室內(nèi)空氣污染與健康之間的因果效應開展研究 105 5.1.3 探究減輕固體燃料利用造成室內(nèi)空氣污染對健康影響的措施 105 5.1.4 陸續(xù)關注室內(nèi)空氣污染對家庭經(jīng)濟福利的間接影響 106 5.1.5 部分國外學者針對中國部分地區(qū)開展了長期跟蹤研究 107 5.2 大樣本問卷調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù)來源與說明 108 5.3 農(nóng)村居民炊事用能現(xiàn)狀與趨勢 110 5.3.1 農(nóng)村居民炊事用能現(xiàn)狀(2011年) 110 5.3.2 農(nóng)村居民炊事用能的歷史變化趨勢(1989~2011年) 113 5.4 固體燃料利用對農(nóng)村居民健康的影響 118 5.4.1 室內(nèi)污染空氣中暴露程度大的居民受到的健康危害更大 119 5.4.2 使用固體燃料的居民呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病患病率更高 121 5.5 消除能源貧困對農(nóng)村居民健康影響的政策建議 124 第6章 能源貧困與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展互動關系 126 6.1 能源貧困與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展關系概述 127 6.2 經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平對能源貧因影響機理研究 130 6.2.1 經(jīng)濟發(fā)展與炊事能源選擇 130 6.2.2 收入水平與生活電力消費 131 6.2.3 收入水平與傳統(tǒng)生物質能消費量 132 6.3 經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平與生活電力消費關系的實證分析 134 6.3.1 經(jīng)濟發(fā)展促進生活電力消費 134 6.3.2 經(jīng)濟發(fā)展有利于改善居民生活用能結構 136 6.3.3 生活電力消費促進經(jīng)濟發(fā)展 138 6.4 本章小結 139 第7章 清潔能源發(fā)展與能源貧困 141 7.1 世界可再生能源發(fā)展與能源貧困 142 7.1.1 可再生能源利用促進各國能源發(fā)展 142 7.1.2 主要能源貧困國家的可再生能源利用現(xiàn)狀 147 7.2 中國清潔能源開發(fā)有助于減緩能源貧困 148 7.2.1 風電發(fā)展迅速,有助于消除能源貧困 149 7.2.2 水力資源豐富,覆蓋相當一部分能源貧困人口所在區(qū)域 151 7.2.3 太陽能利用多元化,可解決能源貧困人口的用能問題 151 7.2.4 生物質能有效利用,有助于消除農(nóng)村能源貧困 153 7.2.5 核能潛力巨大,將成為未來消除能源貧困的有效手段 153 7.3 能源貧困視角下區(qū)域清潔能源發(fā)展評估 154 7.3.1 清潔能源發(fā)展評估框架及數(shù)據(jù)來源 154 7.3.2 東北及西北地區(qū)清潔能源發(fā)展不足使得能源貧困問題亟待解決 157 7.3.3 西南地區(qū)可再生能源發(fā)展為解決能源貧困問題發(fā)揮重要作用 159 7.4 本章小結 160 第8章 氣候變化及其應對政策與能源貧困 162 8.1 氣候變化對能源供應的影響 163 8.1.1 破壞電網(wǎng)穩(wěn)定運行 163 8.1.2 威脅能源正常生產(chǎn) 164 8.1.3 阻礙清潔能源開發(fā)利用 164 8.2 氣候變化對水力發(fā)電的影響評估 165 8.2.1 未來中國水力發(fā)電的氣候變化易損性日益增大 166 8.2.2 中國水力發(fā)電的氣候變化易損性具有顯著區(qū)域差異性 169 8.3 極端氣候事件下電力中斷的社會經(jīng)濟影響 170 8.3.1 中國總體宏觀經(jīng)濟負面影響明顯大于日本 173 8.3.2 生產(chǎn)能力受影響程度不同是造成中日宏觀經(jīng)濟影響差異的根本原因 174 8.3.3 中日9個關鍵部門產(chǎn)出受負面影響程度差異較大 175 8.3.4 結構性因素是造成中日關鍵部門影響差異的原因 177 8.4 應對氣候變化政策對減緩能源貧困的影響 178 8.4.1 碳排放交易政策促進電源結構改善 179 8.4.2 排污稅和碳稅等財稅政策提升清潔能源發(fā)電比例 181 8.4.3 階梯電價政策促進能源公平利用 182 8.4.4 進出口貿(mào)易政策和綠色信貸等金融政策將改善居民能源消費結構 183 8.5 本章小結 183 第9章 消除能源貧困政策與行動 185 9.1 國際消除能源貧困政策與行動 186 9.1.1 電價機制 186 9.1.2 家庭能源補貼 186 9.1.3 可再生能源研發(fā)投入 187 9.1.4 電力基礎設施建設 188 9.2 中國消除能源貧困政策與行動 191 9.2.1 邊遠地區(qū)消除能源貧困政策與行動 191 9.2.2 農(nóng)村地區(qū)消除能源貧困政策與行動 194 9.2.3 城鎮(zhèn)地區(qū)消除能源貧困政策與行動 198 9.3 本章小結 199 第10章 減緩能源貧困的機遇與挑戰(zhàn) 201 10.1 能源貧困是國際社會共同面臨的重大挑戰(zhàn) 202 10.1.1 制約經(jīng)濟發(fā)展 202 10.1.2 危害居民健康 202 10.1.3 阻礙民生改善 202 10.1.4 加大減貧難度 203 10.2 中國在應對能源貧困挑戰(zhàn)方面成效顯著 203 10.2.1 貧困人口不斷減少,能源貧困狀況持續(xù)改善 203 10.2.2 電力服務基本普及,電力普遍服務不斷深化 204 10.2.3 城市居民用能結構持續(xù)改善,棚戶區(qū)改造減緩城鎮(zhèn)能源貧困狀況 205 10.2.4 衣村地區(qū)能源利用效率提高,清潔化程度不斷加大 205 10.2.5 能源基礎設施建設不斷完善,為改善能源貧困提供良好物質基礎 206 10.3 中國在新發(fā)展階段中的能源貧困挑戰(zhàn) 206 10.3.1 能源貧困地區(qū)差異較大,城鄉(xiāng)二元化特點明顯 206 10.3.2 能源消費結構不斷調(diào)整,可再生和清潔能源消費比重仍較低 207 10.3.3 能源貧困引發(fā)的健康問題日益突出,用能相關的環(huán)境污染不斷加劇 208 10.3.4 氣候變化影響能源可獲得性,加劇消除能源貧困的難度 210 10.3.5 經(jīng)濟貧困仍制約能源貧困的改善,收入提高對能源貧困有雙向作用 210 10.4 消除能源貧困的若干政策建議 211 10.4.1 推進階梯能源價格,調(diào)節(jié)城鄉(xiāng)價格差異 211 10.4.2 統(tǒng)籌區(qū)域間能源供給關系,先規(guī)劃后開工 211 10.4.3 吸引民間資本,合理分散風險 211 10.4.4 保護生態(tài)環(huán)境,杜絕以生態(tài)利益換取經(jīng)濟利益 212 10.4.5 繼續(xù)發(fā)揮西部地區(qū)能源資源豐富優(yōu)勢,堅持“西部大開發(fā)”戰(zhàn)略 212 10.4.6 加快新型城鎮(zhèn)化建設,借助城鎮(zhèn)化契機改善能源貧困狀況 212 參考文獻 214 附錄1 圖目錄 226 附錄2 表目錄 230 后記 239 Contents Preface Abbreviations Chapter l Global energy development and energy poverty 1 1.1 General situation of energy development in world 2 1.1.1 Energy consumption increases steadily, but the growth rates are different among countries 2 1.1.2 Fossil energy dominates world's energy consumption, while renewable energy develops quickly 3 1.1.3 World fossil energy reserves are still rich but distribute unevenly 4 1.1.4 Energy trade is crude oil predominantly, but natural gas trade is growing rapidly 6 1.1.5 Energy poverty exists widely and that in developing countries is prominent especially 7 1.2 Characteristics of China's energy development 8 1.2.1 Energy supply and demand grow rapidly and the dependence degree on foreign trade continues to increase 8 1.2.2 The energy industry system is relatively complete and the flow chart of production and demand is significantly different compared with that of developed countries 10 1.2.3 Coal supply and demand distribute reversely and long-distance and large-scale transportation is prominent 11 1.2.4 Gap of domestic oil production is big and oil use in traffic grows fast faster growth 12 1.2.5 Natural gas supply and demand grow fast and the population demanding natural gas increases sharply 13 1.2.6 Greenization of power structure speeds up and electricity amount from regional dispatching is large 14 1.2.7 Problem of energy resources shortage has not been solved and modern energy services system is established preliminarily 15 1.3 New changes and patterns of energy development in the world and China 17 1.3.1 The world's economy is beginning to stabilize and recover and uncertainties in international energy market reduce 17 1.3.2 The global energy pattern is adjusting profoundly and the American energy independence takes the subs tantial step 18 1.3.3 China's energy-saving and carbon reduction are more difficult and implementations of both targets of total amount and intensity control are tough 19 1.3.4 China's air pollution is serious and the work in air pollution prevention has received unprecedented attention 19 1.4 Energy poverty and leading features of energy poverty in the world 20 1.4.1 Universal service level of electricity in developing countries is low, increasing the difficulty of global poverty reduction 20 1.4.2 Household energy in developing countries relies on traditional biomass causing prominent environment and health problems 22 1.4.3 Proportions of household energy expenditure of residents with energy poverty in developed countries are high, making the impact on social justice 24 1.5 Addressing energy poverty: actions and plans from international organizations 25 1.5.1 United Nations: "Sustainable Energy for All" initiative 25 1.5.2 World Health Organization: paying attention to solid fuels utilization and indoor air pollution and health 27 1.5.3 International Energy Agency: evaluations of energy poverty in developing countries continually 28 1.5.4 World Bank: responses to the "Sustainable Energy for All" initiative 29 Chapter 2 Measurements and general characteristics of energy poverty in China 31 2.1.2 Definition of energy poverty in China in this report 33 2.2 Measurement methods of energy poverty and the applicability in China 34 2.2.1 Measurement methods based on energy availability 35 2.2.2 Measurement methods based on quality of energy service 37 2.2.3 Measurement methods based on meeting energy demand of human 38 2.2.4 Applicability of measurement methods of energy poverty in China 41 2.3 Characteristics of energy poverty in China 43 2.3.1 Power has been fully covered and the commercial energy consumption increases constantly 43 2.3.2 Differences of household energy use in urban and rural are significantly and the energy poverty in rural is prominent 45 2.3.3 Geographical differences in rural household energy use are obviously and the energy consumption is dominated by solid fuel 48 2.3.4 Rural energy facilities are inefficient and outdated and the penetration rate of clean cooking utensils is low 49 2.3.5 Household energy prices rise and the proportions of household energy expenditure in urban and rural are differential 50 2.4 Chapter summary 54 Chapter 3 Comprehensive evaluation and regional comparison of China's energy poverty 56 3.1 Comprehensive evaluation criteria and methods of energy poverty 57 3.1.1 Design principles of comprehensive evaluation criteria of energy poverty 57 3.1.2 Function of comprehensive evaluation criteria of energy poverty 58 3.1.3 Comprehensive evaluation criteria of energy poverty in China 59 3.1.4 Calculation method of comprehensive evaluation of energy poverty 66 3.2 Comprehensive evaluation of China's energy poverty 69 3.2.1 Energy poverty comprehensive index shows decreasing trend 70 3.2.2 Energy service availability index improved slightly 71 3.2.3 Energy consumption cleanliness index shows no significant change 72 3.2.4 Energy management completeness index increased with fluctuation 73 3.2.5 Household energy affordability and energy efficiency index increased continually 73 3.3 Regional comparison of China's energy poverty 75 3.3.1 Middle reaches of Yellow River and Yangtze River show the most significant overall energypoverty 75 3.3.2 Middle reaches of Yangtze River show the worst energy availability 76 3.3.3 Middle reaches of Yellow River show the worst energy cleanliness 76 3.3.4 Eastern coastal regions show the worst energy management completeness 77 3.3.5 Northeastern regions show the worst household energy affordability and lowest energy efficiency 78 3.4 Current characteristics and trends of regional energy poverty 79 3.5 Policy implications of energy poverty alleviation 82 3.5.1 Increasing investment on energy infrastructure and improving performance of energy management and spread organization in rural area 86 3.5.2 Increasing consumption rate of non-solid commercial energy in total energy and spreading modern and clean utilization of biomass 86 3.5.3 Decreasing relative cost on household commercial energy consumption and encouraging utilizing modern, clean and efficient household energy consumption equipment 87 3.6 Chapter summary 87 Chapter 4 Energy poverty's impact on urban resident health 89 4.1 Research progress 90 4.1.1 Developing countries: focus on the impact of indoor air pollution on resident health 90 4.1.2 Developed countries: focus on the effects of specific measures on resident health 91 4.2 China's residential energy consumption and energy poverty in urban areas 93 4.2.1 Energy consumption in urban areas stands on a lower level compared to that in developed countries, despite being higher than in rural areas 93 4.2.2 Energy consumption structure has been improved and the share of clean energy has escalated 95 4.2.3 Infrastructure construction in urban has been improved and the coverage of urban gas has been expanded 95 4.3 Energy poverty and urban resident health 96 4.3.1 Indoor thermal comfort is a significant factor affecting resident health 96 4.3.2 Indoor air pollution due to fuel combustion poses a serious threat on resident health 97 4.3.3 Household energy efficiency makes a remarkable impact on resident health 98 4.3.4 Curbing the expansion of polluted areas沁 a valid way to improve resident health 99 4.4 Policy implications on eliminating the impact of energy poverty on resident healthin urban areas 100 4.5 Chapter summary 101 Chapter 5 Solid fuels in rural and their impacts on resident health 103 5.1 Research progress of energy poverty of rural resident health 104 5.1.1 International journals and high-influent scholars pay high attention to solid fuel utilization 104 5.1.2 Research on reason-effect relation between indoor air pollution and health caused by solid fuel utilization 105 5.1.3 Measures to reduce the health impact of indoor air pollution and health caused by solid fuel utilization 105 5.1.4 Attentions are paid to indirect impacts of indoor air pollution on household welfares 106 5.1.5 Some overseas scholars make the long-term research on China's regions 107 5.2 Data sources and descriptions of large-sample questionnaire survey 108 5.3 Current situation and trend in rural household cooking energy utilization 110 5.3.1 Current situation in rural household cooking energy utilization (2011) 110 5.3.2 Historical change trend in rural household cooking energy utilization (1989-2011) 113 5.4 The effects of solid fuel utilization on the health of rural residents 118 5.4.1 Residents with more air pollution exposure suffer greater health hazard 119 5.4.2 Residents using solid fuels are more likely to get respiratory system disease 121 5.5 Policy implications to eliminate the effect of energy poverty on rural resident health 124 Chapter 6 Interaction between energy poverty and economic development 126 6.1 Reviews of the relationship between energy poverty and economic development 127 6.2 Impact mechanism of energy poverty on economic development 130 6.2.1 Economic development levels and cooking energy selection 130 6.2.2 Income levels and household electricity consumption 131 6.2.3 Income levels and traditional biomass consumption 132 6.3 Empirical analysis of the relationship between economic development and electricity consumption 134 6.3.1 Economic development promotes household electricity consumption 134 6.3.2 Economic development helps to improve the household energy consumption structure 136 6.3.3 Household electricity consumption promotes economic development 138 6.4 Chapter summary 139 Chapter 7 Clean energy development and energy poverty 141 7.1 World renewable energy development and energy poverty 142 7.1.1 Renewables promote energy development 142 7.1.2 Utilization situation of renewables in those countries with energy poverty 147 7.2 Clean energy development contributes to mitigate energy poverty in China 148 7.2.1 Wind power develops rapidly and helps eradicate energy poverty 149 7.2.2 The water resource is rich, covering a considerable part of energy poverty region 151 7.2.3 Utilization diversification of solar power can reduce most of China's population without electricity 151 7.2.4 Effective utilization of biomass is an effective way to solve the problem of energy poverty 153 7.2.5 Nuclear energy with tremendous potential will become one of the most important means to eradicate energy poverty in the future 153 7.3 Regional assessment on clean energy development: a view of energy poverty 154 7.3.1 Conceptual framework and data resource of clean energy development assessment 154 7.3.2 Insufficient clean energy development in Northeast and Northwest areas make energy poverty need to be solved urgently 157 7.3.3 Renewable energy development in Southwest areas play an important role in solving the problem of energy poverty 159 7.4 Chapter summary 160 Chapter 8 Climate change and its coping strategies and energy poverty 162 8.1 Impact of climate change on the energy supply 163 8.1.1 Climate change might disrupt the power grid 163 8.1.2 Climate change might reduce the energy production 164 8.1.3 Climate change might hinder the progress of clean energy use 164 8.2 Impact of climate change on the hydropower generation 165 8.2.1 Vulnerability of China's future hydropower generation to climate change is increasing 166 8.2.2 Significant difference of hydropower vulnerability in regional level 169 8.3 Impact of electricity disruption under extreme climatic events on socioeconorruc systems 170 8.3.1 Macroeconomic negative effect in China is significantly greater than that of Japan 173 8.3.2 Differences of production capacity affected cause differences of macroeconomic impact between China and Japan fundamentally 174 8.3.3 Differences of negative effects in nine key sectors' outputs in China and Japan are great 175 8.3.4 Structural factors cause different influences in key sectors in China and Japan 177 8.4 Impact of climate change policy on energy poverty mitigation 178 8.4.1 Emissions trading policy improves the structure of power generation 179 8.4.2 Fiscal taxation policies such as effluent charge and carbon tax encourage clean power generation 181 8.4.3 Step tariff policy ensures the equity of energy use 182 8.4.4 Financial policies such as import and export trade policy and green-credit policy allow a better energy consumption structure 183 8.5 Chapter summary 183 Chapter 9 Policies and actions of energy poverty eradication 185 9.1 International policies and actions of energy poverty eradication 186 9.1.3 Research and development on renewable energy 187 9.2 China's policies and actions of energy poverty eradication 191 9.2.1 Policies and actions of energy poverty eradication: remote regions 191 9.2.2 Policies and actions of energy poverty eradication: rural regions 194 9.2.3 Policies and actions of energy poverty eradication: urban regions 198 9.3 Chapter summary 199 Chapter 10 Achievements and prospects of energy poverty mitigation 201 10.1 Energy poverty elimination is the unavoidable problem in areas of economy, health and livelihood 202 10.1.1 Energy poverty restricts the economic development 202 10.1.2 Energy poverty endangers residents' health 202 10.1.3 Energy poverty hinders the improvement of livelihood 202 10.1.4 Energy poverty increases the difficulty of poverty reduction 203 10.2 Policies and actions to mitigate energy poverty have achieved remarkable results since the reform and open-up 203 10.2.1 Population in poverty is decreasing and energy poverty situation continues to improve 203 10.2.2 Electricity service has been popularized and universal service of electricity improve 203 10.2.3 Energy structure of urban residents continues to improve and the reform of shanty town helps to improve the situation of towns' energy poverty 205 10.2.4 Energy use efficiency and cleanness degree in rural areas are improving 205 10.2.5 Construction of energy infrastructure accelerates continuously, providing the material foundation for improving the energy poverty 206 10.3 Current challenges of improving energy poverty 206 10.3.1 Regional difference in energy poverty is large and characteristics of urban and rural dualization are obvious 206 10.3.2 Energy consumption structure keeps adjusting, but the proportion of clean energy consumption is still low 207 10.3.3 Health problems caused by energy poverty are prominent and energy-related environmental pollution is growing increasingly 208 10.3.4 Climate change make impacts on energy availability, aggravating the difficulty of energy poverty climination 210 10.3.5 Energy poverty shows multiple performances, so administrative measures should be more abundant 210 10.4 Policy evaluations and action suggestions of energy poverty elimination 211 10.4.1 Boost ladder energy prices and adjust price differences in urban and rural areas 211 10.4.2 Coordinate regional relations of energy supply and make plans before construction 211 10.4.3 Attract private capital and spread risk reasonably 211 10.4.4 Protect the ecological environment and completely eradicate exchanging ecological benfits for economic benefits 212 10.4.5 Continue to make advantages of the rich energy resources in western regions and implement the "Western Development" strategy 212 10.4.6 Speed up the construction of new-type urbanization and take the opportunity of urbanization to improve the energy poverty 212 References 214 Appendix 1 Figures 232 Appendix 2 Tables 237 Epilogue 239
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