目錄
第1章緒論1
1.1研究背景、目標(biāo)及意義1
1.2國內(nèi)外研究狀況5
1.3本書研究?jī)?nèi)容和技術(shù)路線27
第2章海外石油投資環(huán)境研究理論體系34
2.1海外石油投資環(huán)境基本內(nèi)涵及研究特征34
2.2海外石油投資環(huán)境系統(tǒng)分析的理論架構(gòu)40
2.3海外石油投資環(huán)境基礎(chǔ)理論45
2.4海外石油投資環(huán)境方法論56
2.5海外石油投資環(huán)境技術(shù)論68
本章小結(jié)75
第3章海外石油投資環(huán)境系統(tǒng)分析方法和模型77
3.1海外石油投資業(yè)務(wù)分類及評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系77
3.2海外石油投資環(huán)境系統(tǒng)評(píng)價(jià)方法體系及工作流程86
3.3定性分析及要素識(shí)別方法體系94
3.4系統(tǒng)解剖方法及模型105
3.5價(jià)值評(píng)估方法及模型120
本章小結(jié)133
第4章拉美地區(qū)石油投資環(huán)境系統(tǒng)分析134
4.1拉美石油投資環(huán)境概況134
4.2熵視角下的拉美石油投資環(huán)境系統(tǒng)解析140
4.3拉美地區(qū)石油輸出與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的灰色熵分析145
4.4拉美典型國家——委內(nèi)瑞拉解析154
4.5拉美地區(qū)石油投資環(huán)境系統(tǒng)的基本認(rèn)識(shí)161
本章小結(jié)162
第5章非洲地區(qū)石油投資環(huán)境系統(tǒng)分析164
5.1非洲石油投資環(huán)境概況164
5.2非洲石油投資環(huán)境系統(tǒng)分析170
5.3基于物元模型評(píng)價(jià)非洲石油投資環(huán)境172
5.4非洲典型石油國家投資環(huán)境的耗散分析181
5.5非洲地區(qū)石油投資環(huán)境系統(tǒng)的基本認(rèn)識(shí)190
本章小結(jié)191
第6章海外石油投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析與測(cè)度192
6.1海外石油投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定義及特征192
6.2海外石油投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識(shí)別、分析與評(píng)估196
6.3非洲石油投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的要素分析模型206
6.4海外石油投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的期權(quán)模型218
6.5海外石油投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的基本認(rèn)識(shí)224
本章小結(jié)225
第7章海外石油投資環(huán)境評(píng)價(jià)系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)及開發(fā)227
7.1軟件概述227
7.2軟件總體結(jié)構(gòu)229
7.3全局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)結(jié)構(gòu)說明231
7.4模塊設(shè)計(jì)233
7.5海外石油投資環(huán)境系統(tǒng)展示238
本章小結(jié)246
第8章結(jié)論與展望248
8.1取得的主要結(jié)論248
8.2研究工作展望250
附錄1非洲主要石油國家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)基礎(chǔ)數(shù)值253
附錄2關(guān)鍵變量名詞注釋260
附錄3部分模塊代碼262
參考文獻(xiàn)279
后記290
Contents
Chapter 1 Introduction1
1.1 Background，objective and significance1
1.2 Research review5
1.3 Focuses and solutions27
Chapter 2 Theoretical system of foreign petroleum investment environment analysis34
2.1 Basic contents and characteristics34
2.2 Theoretical framework40
2.3 Basic theories45
2.4 Methodologies56
2.5 Analytical technologies68
Summary75
Chapter 3 Methods and models in foreign petroleum investment environment analysis77
3.1 Classification and index system of foreign petroleum investment77
3.2 Method system and technical procedure86
3.3 Qualitative analysis and indicator-based evaluation94
3.4 System analysis105
3.5 Value evaluation120
Summary133
Chapter 4 System analysis of Latin American petroleum investment environment134
4.1 Overview of Latin American petroleum investment environment134
4.2 Entropy analysis of Latin American petroleum investment environment system140
4.3 Grey-entropy analysis of oil output and economic development in Latin America145
4.4 Typical country analysis-Venezuela154
4.5 Conclusions161
Summary162
Chapter 5 System analysis of African petroleum investment environment164
5.1 Overview of African petroleum investment environment164
5.2 Analysis of African petroleum investment environment system170
5.3 Matter element analysis of African petroleum investment environment172
5.4 Dissipative analysis of typical countries181
5.5 Conclusions190
Summary191
Chapter 6 Risk measurement of foreign petroleum investment192
6.1 Definitions and Features192
6.2 Recognition，analysis and measurement196
6.3 Risk evaluation based on factor analysis model206
6.4 Risk evaluation based on real option model218
6.5 Conclusions224
Summary225
Chapter 7 Design and development of foreign petroleum investment environment evaluation system227
7.1 Overview227
7.2 Overall structrue design229
7.3 Global data structure231
7.4 Module design233
7.5 Demonstration238
Summary246
Chapter 8 Conclusions and outlook248
8.1 Conclusions248
8.2 Outlook250
Appendix 1 Risk assessment data of main African oil countries253
Appendix 2 Key variables list260
Appendix 3 Module programming codes262
References279
Postscript290