氣候變化健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法及應(yīng)用
氣候變化與健康日益成為國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)注的熱門話題。應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成為公共衛(wèi)生領(lǐng)域面臨的重大挑戰(zhàn)與發(fā)展機(jī)遇，而開(kāi)展氣候變化健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估是進(jìn)行有效應(yīng)對(duì)的基礎(chǔ)。目前國(guó)內(nèi)外已廣泛開(kāi)展氣候變化對(duì)人類健康的影響研究，并形成了一套科學(xué)的理論和方法體系。本書將系統(tǒng)總結(jié)氣候變化與健康研究領(lǐng)域前沿且成熟的方法，并依托具體的案例詳細(xì)介紹各個(gè)方法的實(shí)際應(yīng)用，以指導(dǎo)國(guó)內(nèi)研究人員開(kāi)展氣候變化健康領(lǐng)域的科學(xué)研究。
本書由13個(gè)章節(jié)組成，內(nèi)容主要包括：氣候變化與健康領(lǐng)域常用分析方法理論以及實(shí)際應(yīng)用，包括了基于時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)的關(guān)聯(lián)分析方法、空間分析方法、氣候變化影響人群健康的脆弱性評(píng)估以及未來(lái)氣候變化對(duì)人群健康影響的預(yù)估方法等。
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主持國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃、全球變化亞太研究網(wǎng)絡(luò)等20多個(gè)科研基金項(xiàng)目（總科研經(jīng)費(fèi)超過(guò)2000萬(wàn)元）
目 錄
第 1 章 緒論 ····················································································· 1
1.1 引言 ···················································································· 1
1.1.1 天氣、氣候、氣候變化與極端事件 ······················································ 1
1.1.2 溫室氣體排放情景 ··········································································· 2
1.2 氣候變化基本事實(shí) ·································································· 2
1.2.1 全球氣候變化現(xiàn)狀 ··········································································· 2
1.2.2 中國(guó)氣候變化現(xiàn)狀 ··········································································· 3
1.3 氣候變化健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn) ·································································· 4
1.3.1 氣候變化影響人群健康的機(jī)制路徑 ······················································ 4
1.3.2 氣候變化對(duì)全球人群健康的影響 ························································· 4
1.3.3 氣候變化對(duì)我國(guó)人群健康的影響 ························································· 6
1.4 氣候變化健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法 ······················································ 8
1.4.1 研究設(shè)計(jì) ······················································································· 8
1.4.2 暴露評(píng)估 ····················································································· 10
1.4.3 暴露-反應(yīng)關(guān)系評(píng)價(jià) ········································································ 11
1.4.4 歸因風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià) ··············································································· 12
1.4.5 脆弱性評(píng)估 ·················································································· 13
1.4.6 基于氣候變化情景的未來(lái)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)估 ···················································· 13
參考文獻(xiàn) ···················································································· 14
第 2 章 時(shí)間序列分析方法 ·································································· 16
2.1 引言 ··················································································· 16
2.1.1 用于預(yù)測(cè)的時(shí)間序列分析 ································································ 16
2.1.2 用于關(guān)聯(lián)性研究的時(shí)間序列分析 ······················································· 17
2.2 時(shí)間序列分析常用數(shù)據(jù)資源 ····················································· 19
2.2.1 數(shù)據(jù)資源類型及獲取途徑 ································································ 19
2.2.2 數(shù)據(jù)處理 ····················································································· 20
2.3 常用分析方法和研究設(shè)計(jì) ························································ 20
2.3.1 分布滯后非線性模型 ······································································ 20
2.3.2 斷點(diǎn)時(shí)間序列 ··············································································· 21
·ii· 氣候變化健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法與應(yīng)用
2.3.3 雙重差分方法 ··············································································· 22
2.3.4 時(shí)間分層的病例交叉研究 ································································ 23
2.3.5 單純病例研究 ··············································································· 23
2.4 小結(jié) ··················································································· 24
參考文獻(xiàn) ···················································································· 24
第 3 章 地理信息分析方法 ·································································· 27
3.1 引言 ··················································································· 27
3.2 地理信息分析方法與健康研究進(jìn)展概述 ······································ 27
3.2.1 地理信息系統(tǒng)與健康研究 ································································ 28
3.2.2 遙感與健康研究 ············································································ 30
3.2.3 空間和時(shí)空分析與健康研究 ····························································· 32
3.3 暴露評(píng)價(jià)方法 ······································································· 45
3.4 高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)聚集區(qū)識(shí)別 ································································· 47
3.5 空間異質(zhì)性與驅(qū)動(dòng)因子識(shí)別 ····················································· 48
3.6 小結(jié) ··················································································· 49
參考文獻(xiàn) ···················································································· 50
第 4 章 基于 DLNM 方法分析氣溫對(duì)多地區(qū)人群死亡的影響 ······················ 53
4.1 引言 ··················································································· 53
4.2 方法學(xué)現(xiàn)狀與進(jìn)展 ································································· 54
4.3 基于多地區(qū)數(shù)據(jù)評(píng)估全國(guó)氣溫與死亡的非線性關(guān)系研究 ················· 56
4.3.1 案例簡(jiǎn)介 ····················································································· 56
4.3.2 數(shù)據(jù)收集 ····················································································· 56
4.3.3 描述性分析 ·················································································· 58
4.3.4 確定基本模型和參數(shù) ······································································ 59
4.3.5 基于 DLNM 的二階段分析方法 ························································· 60
4.4 小結(jié) ··················································································· 63
參考文獻(xiàn) ···················································································· 64
第 5 章 基于廣義相加模型分析極端天氣事件對(duì)人群發(fā)病的影響 ·················· 66
5.1 引言 ·················
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